China is learning the hard way that price controls ultimately lead to supply and demand problems, in this case, in the energy sector.
Interesting article on the country's problem here.
Wednesday, October 31, 2007
Day Trade: QLD
Bought 200 shares @ $118.62
Sold 200 shares @ $120.71
Per share profit of $2.09 (1.8 percent) or $418.
Time in trade: 19 minutes.
I bought as the Nasdaq dropped hard to the day's pivot point after the Fed announcement and then sold as it quickly rebounded and shot back up to the S2 pivot point, where it was prior to the announcement.
The markets went higher and I could have held on for another $1 or so, but I won't wrinkle my nose at a quick $400.
Sold 200 shares @ $120.71
Per share profit of $2.09 (1.8 percent) or $418.
Time in trade: 19 minutes.
I bought as the Nasdaq dropped hard to the day's pivot point after the Fed announcement and then sold as it quickly rebounded and shot back up to the S2 pivot point, where it was prior to the announcement.
The markets went higher and I could have held on for another $1 or so, but I won't wrinkle my nose at a quick $400.
Short-Term Trading with RSI(2)
Forgot to mention that I have a post at TG's place on using RSI(2) as the basis for a short-term trading system.
A post by Woodshedder reminded me of some work I did back in March, so I dusted off the computer code and did some backtesting.
A post by Woodshedder reminded me of some work I did back in March, so I dusted off the computer code and did some backtesting.
Trend Following System Pick: DELL
Dude, I bought me some Dell!
Bought 200 shares @ $30.60.
This is one of those cases where the system says to do one thing and my gut says, ugh. I don't like Dell, don't have much faith in the company's ability to execute, but the system says buy so I did.
Again, I would post a chart but Blogger won't let me. Not sure what's going on. I'll try again later.
Bought 200 shares @ $30.60.
This is one of those cases where the system says to do one thing and my gut says, ugh. I don't like Dell, don't have much faith in the company's ability to execute, but the system says buy so I did.
Again, I would post a chart but Blogger won't let me. Not sure what's going on. I'll try again later.
Tuesday, October 30, 2007
Back From The Dead
Just in time for Halloween, NVDA rises from the dead.
Now, if someone will please announce they are buying BIIB.
Sell the news, sell the news.
Doh!
Tape your own intraday chart of NVDA here
because Blogger won't let me post a chart.
Damn free software!
Now, if someone will please announce they are buying BIIB.
Sell the news, sell the news.
Doh!
Chop, Chop
It is a pretty choppy day in Nasdaq land with the tech index crossing the pivot point for the third time today. I tried a day trade this morning, got a bad fill at the open, then bailed when it looked as though the world was coming to an end on the 10 a.m. bar.
Bottom line, I made $12 bucks before commissions and then decided to sit this one out. I should know better than to trade around the Fed!
I do have to admit, though, that I almost got back in when the Naz made a hard landing on the S1 pivot, but chasing a choppy market is how I vaporized a couple thousand bucks in August. I'd like to think I learned something from that experience!
Bottom line, I made $12 bucks before commissions and then decided to sit this one out. I should know better than to trade around the Fed!
I do have to admit, though, that I almost got back in when the Naz made a hard landing on the S1 pivot, but chasing a choppy market is how I vaporized a couple thousand bucks in August. I'd like to think I learned something from that experience!
Monday, October 29, 2007
Sunday, October 28, 2007
Reviewing The Review
Below is the book review Marek Fuchs wrote for TheStreet.com regarding Michael Covel's book The Complete Turtle Trader.
I've read the review a couple times this weekend and keep shaking my head at the flippant and uninformed comments Fuchs makes throughout his review, so I thought I would spend some time this evening reviewing the review. My comments are in red italics.
By Marek Fuchs
Investment and management books have an alarming tendency to spend a lot of time advising you to take your life and trading cues from one particular wild animal or another. This month's preference just might be the turtle, and I instantly developed the sneaking suspicion that the turtle is possibly in vogue in reaction to the popularity of Jim Cramer, co-founder of this site and, shall we say, not someone who has achieved renown in the field of business commentary from following a tortoise's take on life. (Fuchs apparently is not familiar with the origin of the name Turtle Trader, which came from an interview that Richard Dennis, the co-founder of the Turtle Trader program, gave while visiting Singapore. After visiting a turtle farm, Dennis said he was going to produce traders like they produced turtles. In no way, shape or form is the phrase Turtle Trader meant to imply a slow and steady approach to investing. Fuchs is either ignorant of the term's origin, which means he didn't read the book, or he is projecting his own mental image onto the material.)
Sure enough, The Complete TurtleTrader: The Legend, The Lessons, The Results, (Collins) by Michael W. Covel, does not make it to the back inside cover before it is drawing distinctions between the timeless success of the so-called turtle traders and the "era full of slapdash investing advice and promises of hot stock tips for 'the next big thing,' as popularized by pundits like Jim Cramer of 'Mad Money.'"
The Business Press Maven has, as longtime readers know, been up front with his own quibbles with Cramer, but I'm always suspicious of anyone who defines themselves, as in this case, by what they are not. (Since the Turtle Traders came before Jim Cramer, it is difficult to take this comment seriously. Also, since Covel was not a Turtle, I'm not sure who Fuchs is referring to. Covel isn't trying to define himself in this book, he is simply making a distinction between the stock market hype of today's business media with its incessant BUY, BUY, BUY, SELL, SELL, SELL nonsense as personified by Jim Cramer, and the methodical, systems-based approach taught to the Turtle Traders.)
And the inside front cover, ironically enough, starts with a real go-go come-on -- nothing any self-respecting turtle would ever write, assuming, of course, that a turtle could write:
"What happens when ordinary people are taught a system to make extraordinary money?" (Unfortunately for Fuchs, the whole point of the Richard Dennis/Bill Eckhardt experiment was to answer that very question. The Turtle Trader program was a real-life version of the Eddie Murphy/Dan Aykroyd movie Trading Places. The experiment set out to answer the question: are great traders born or can they be taught? One can argue whether those selected to participate were ordinary people, but one can not dismiss the fact that several people with little to no background in futures trading were able to make millions of dollars after only two weeks of training.)
The second line of the preface draws a parallel with Donald Trump. Again, not one universally recognized as a turtle type. First off, once you start giving momentum play advice, you lose me on the turtle reference. No turtle I know is a momentum player. (Here again Fuchs is mistaken in associating the word turtle with a particular style of trading. The turtle name has nothing to do with the trading methodology used by the Turtle Traders. Fuchs would know this if he read the book. And if he did read the book, then he needs to stop associating the name with the trading style because he is doing his readers a disservice. However, the last sentence indicates that Fuchs did not read the book because the Turtle Traders were momentum traders, that's what trading breakouts is all about. I think what we have here is a case of psychological projection. Fuchs sees turtles as slow and steady creatures, so therefore, Turtle Traders must also be slow and steady investors, of course, they were not.)
When it comes to business books, though, inconsistencies sometimes have to be accepted as a naturally existing part of the genre, in order to get at the underlying premise, which is the only item that matters to investors anyhow. (Again, incorrectly associating the Turtle name with a trading style.)
The premise is that, with his system, Covel ran a contest of sorts, looking for people in totally unrelated fields to train and then set loose on a trading desk. And they did well. Don't be too impressed, though. Wall Street has always been a nonprofessional profession, which is to say a field in which savvy people who have been successful and earned their nicks and world weariness in other fields have come to and been successful. (First, Covel didn't run any contest, Dennis and Eckhardt did. Secondly, Fuchs is missing the point. The Turtle story isn't about whether savvy people have found success on Wall Street, but whether normal people can be turned into very successful traders after being taught simple trading rules over a one or two-week period. Also keep in mind that the Turtle story took place a decade before the invention of the World Wide Web that democratized financial markets with web-based trading platforms and dirt cheap commissions.)
In fact, talk to a lot of traders and the last guy they'll want working on a trading desk with them is someone with formal training -- a business school automaton. When The Business Press Maven was a stockbroker, there was an office joke that if someone scored too high on their Series 7, they were in for a bad career, because it meant they were too financially book-smart to succeed on their feet. Even Hare Cramer, the anti-turtle, started as a journalist and went to law school.
So I disagree with the basic premise that a system that turns novices into successes is much of a departure from all the other systems that have always turned everyone without financial experience into successes. (Fair enough, but the fact other people find success on Wall Street doesn't answer the question: is their trading success a result of traits they were born with or the result of effective training programs? In other words, are great traders born or taught? Discussing the Turtle Traders without putting the story in its proper context of the bet between Dennis and Eckhardt is just poor journalism.)
Still, what of the system? Well, as in the case of many of these systems, I have nothing specifically against it, but I also have nothing specifically for it. The Turtle System is, in the end, a mix of common sense maxims about trading ("If the Turtles lost money in a market, they had to move on. Accepting and managing losses are part of their game") to advice to be more concerned about when to sell than when to buy to technical indicators, like buying into strength during break-outs.
Is there some value to reading all this obviousness formalized together in one place? I suppose, in that it can't hurt, and maybe collecting all these maxims in one place, even if you've seen the same maxims elsewhere, will set some sense in people's minds. Still, I'll slap a dreaded Business Press Maven "Hindrance" label on this book. There might be value to amateur investors, as every trader needs a plan, but I can't in good conscience suggest paying $25.95 for a book of maxims. Finally, if you do read it, please don't make too much of pianists and computer geniuses making money because of this system. In the history of Wall Street, those who have focused on quirky successes in other fields have done well under many programs. (If the trend following strategy and risk management rules used by the Turtles are just so much common sense, then why isn't every retail trader or investor a millionaire? Last time I checked, researchers in behavioral finance have found that most retail investor types do the wrong thing at the wrong time because they allow emotions to influence their trading decisions, including cashing in winners while holding their losers until they come back to breakeven. The simple and effective rules followed by the Turtles and other system traders only become obvious once traditional fundamental-based investors set aside their prejudices and examine the markets from a different perspective, which they get introduced to via books such as The Complete Turtle Trader.)
In addition to this trading advice book, there is a tortoise and hare on the cover of one of the latest business self-help books -- but the hare is winning. The book The Age of Speed: Learning to Thrive in a More-Faster-Now-World, (Bard Press) is written by Olympic-speed-skater-turned-corporate-consultant Vince Poscente, who speaks about the need for speed.
This book, like most of these management pamphlets that happen to come with a hard cover, is not to be taken too seriously. I only mention this one -- and give it a (again, hesitant) "Help" label because of how it uses the capacity for speed as a lens through which to look at companies. In other words, speed as a baseline condition to our economic and social life is a given. Dealing with it is the ante you have to put up to get into the game.
So how does a company you are investing in measure up in this regard? Poscente is most interesting in analyzing Dell which he calls a "Bottle Rocket," which pursues speed at all costs, but is lacking in ability to harness it, which ultimately puts it in danger. Though Dell didn't start out as a Bottle Rocket, its inability to evolve from the "Dell Way" over the past few years turned it into a prime example.
In the end, thinking of companies in terms of their ability to surmount and even capitalize on the speed of modern society is something that anyone -- tortoise or hare -- would be well served to do.
(Overall, Fuchs did a wham-bam thank you ma'am-type review that failed to put the story of the Turtles in its proper context, while doing a fair amount of psychological projection by associating the word turtle with a particular type of trading.
While I have several obvious disagreements with Fuchs, any credibility he has quickly evaporated as a result of this one sentence:
Sorry, but the entire Turtle trading strategy is based upon entering a trade after a 20-day or 55-day breakout, and a breakout play is by anyone's definition a momentum play. Every Turtle Trader was and is a momentum trader.
As a result of this obviously incorrect statement, I can only conclude that Fuchs didn't read or understand the book, which is too bad for TheStreet.com's readers, because if they take Fuchs' advice not to buy the book, then they will miss an opportunity to read and learn about one of the great trading stories of the late 20th century.)
I've read the review a couple times this weekend and keep shaking my head at the flippant and uninformed comments Fuchs makes throughout his review, so I thought I would spend some time this evening reviewing the review. My comments are in red italics.
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
By Marek Fuchs
Investment and management books have an alarming tendency to spend a lot of time advising you to take your life and trading cues from one particular wild animal or another. This month's preference just might be the turtle, and I instantly developed the sneaking suspicion that the turtle is possibly in vogue in reaction to the popularity of Jim Cramer, co-founder of this site and, shall we say, not someone who has achieved renown in the field of business commentary from following a tortoise's take on life. (Fuchs apparently is not familiar with the origin of the name Turtle Trader, which came from an interview that Richard Dennis, the co-founder of the Turtle Trader program, gave while visiting Singapore. After visiting a turtle farm, Dennis said he was going to produce traders like they produced turtles. In no way, shape or form is the phrase Turtle Trader meant to imply a slow and steady approach to investing. Fuchs is either ignorant of the term's origin, which means he didn't read the book, or he is projecting his own mental image onto the material.)
Sure enough, The Complete TurtleTrader: The Legend, The Lessons, The Results, (Collins) by Michael W. Covel, does not make it to the back inside cover before it is drawing distinctions between the timeless success of the so-called turtle traders and the "era full of slapdash investing advice and promises of hot stock tips for 'the next big thing,' as popularized by pundits like Jim Cramer of 'Mad Money.'"
The Business Press Maven has, as longtime readers know, been up front with his own quibbles with Cramer, but I'm always suspicious of anyone who defines themselves, as in this case, by what they are not. (Since the Turtle Traders came before Jim Cramer, it is difficult to take this comment seriously. Also, since Covel was not a Turtle, I'm not sure who Fuchs is referring to. Covel isn't trying to define himself in this book, he is simply making a distinction between the stock market hype of today's business media with its incessant BUY, BUY, BUY, SELL, SELL, SELL nonsense as personified by Jim Cramer, and the methodical, systems-based approach taught to the Turtle Traders.)
And the inside front cover, ironically enough, starts with a real go-go come-on -- nothing any self-respecting turtle would ever write, assuming, of course, that a turtle could write:
"What happens when ordinary people are taught a system to make extraordinary money?" (Unfortunately for Fuchs, the whole point of the Richard Dennis/Bill Eckhardt experiment was to answer that very question. The Turtle Trader program was a real-life version of the Eddie Murphy/Dan Aykroyd movie Trading Places. The experiment set out to answer the question: are great traders born or can they be taught? One can argue whether those selected to participate were ordinary people, but one can not dismiss the fact that several people with little to no background in futures trading were able to make millions of dollars after only two weeks of training.)
The second line of the preface draws a parallel with Donald Trump. Again, not one universally recognized as a turtle type. First off, once you start giving momentum play advice, you lose me on the turtle reference. No turtle I know is a momentum player. (Here again Fuchs is mistaken in associating the word turtle with a particular style of trading. The turtle name has nothing to do with the trading methodology used by the Turtle Traders. Fuchs would know this if he read the book. And if he did read the book, then he needs to stop associating the name with the trading style because he is doing his readers a disservice. However, the last sentence indicates that Fuchs did not read the book because the Turtle Traders were momentum traders, that's what trading breakouts is all about. I think what we have here is a case of psychological projection. Fuchs sees turtles as slow and steady creatures, so therefore, Turtle Traders must also be slow and steady investors, of course, they were not.)
When it comes to business books, though, inconsistencies sometimes have to be accepted as a naturally existing part of the genre, in order to get at the underlying premise, which is the only item that matters to investors anyhow. (Again, incorrectly associating the Turtle name with a trading style.)
The premise is that, with his system, Covel ran a contest of sorts, looking for people in totally unrelated fields to train and then set loose on a trading desk. And they did well. Don't be too impressed, though. Wall Street has always been a nonprofessional profession, which is to say a field in which savvy people who have been successful and earned their nicks and world weariness in other fields have come to and been successful. (First, Covel didn't run any contest, Dennis and Eckhardt did. Secondly, Fuchs is missing the point. The Turtle story isn't about whether savvy people have found success on Wall Street, but whether normal people can be turned into very successful traders after being taught simple trading rules over a one or two-week period. Also keep in mind that the Turtle story took place a decade before the invention of the World Wide Web that democratized financial markets with web-based trading platforms and dirt cheap commissions.)
In fact, talk to a lot of traders and the last guy they'll want working on a trading desk with them is someone with formal training -- a business school automaton. When The Business Press Maven was a stockbroker, there was an office joke that if someone scored too high on their Series 7, they were in for a bad career, because it meant they were too financially book-smart to succeed on their feet. Even Hare Cramer, the anti-turtle, started as a journalist and went to law school.
So I disagree with the basic premise that a system that turns novices into successes is much of a departure from all the other systems that have always turned everyone without financial experience into successes. (Fair enough, but the fact other people find success on Wall Street doesn't answer the question: is their trading success a result of traits they were born with or the result of effective training programs? In other words, are great traders born or taught? Discussing the Turtle Traders without putting the story in its proper context of the bet between Dennis and Eckhardt is just poor journalism.)
Still, what of the system? Well, as in the case of many of these systems, I have nothing specifically against it, but I also have nothing specifically for it. The Turtle System is, in the end, a mix of common sense maxims about trading ("If the Turtles lost money in a market, they had to move on. Accepting and managing losses are part of their game") to advice to be more concerned about when to sell than when to buy to technical indicators, like buying into strength during break-outs.
Is there some value to reading all this obviousness formalized together in one place? I suppose, in that it can't hurt, and maybe collecting all these maxims in one place, even if you've seen the same maxims elsewhere, will set some sense in people's minds. Still, I'll slap a dreaded Business Press Maven "Hindrance" label on this book. There might be value to amateur investors, as every trader needs a plan, but I can't in good conscience suggest paying $25.95 for a book of maxims. Finally, if you do read it, please don't make too much of pianists and computer geniuses making money because of this system. In the history of Wall Street, those who have focused on quirky successes in other fields have done well under many programs. (If the trend following strategy and risk management rules used by the Turtles are just so much common sense, then why isn't every retail trader or investor a millionaire? Last time I checked, researchers in behavioral finance have found that most retail investor types do the wrong thing at the wrong time because they allow emotions to influence their trading decisions, including cashing in winners while holding their losers until they come back to breakeven. The simple and effective rules followed by the Turtles and other system traders only become obvious once traditional fundamental-based investors set aside their prejudices and examine the markets from a different perspective, which they get introduced to via books such as The Complete Turtle Trader.)
In addition to this trading advice book, there is a tortoise and hare on the cover of one of the latest business self-help books -- but the hare is winning. The book The Age of Speed: Learning to Thrive in a More-Faster-Now-World, (Bard Press) is written by Olympic-speed-skater-turned-corporate-consultant Vince Poscente, who speaks about the need for speed.
This book, like most of these management pamphlets that happen to come with a hard cover, is not to be taken too seriously. I only mention this one -- and give it a (again, hesitant) "Help" label because of how it uses the capacity for speed as a lens through which to look at companies. In other words, speed as a baseline condition to our economic and social life is a given. Dealing with it is the ante you have to put up to get into the game.
So how does a company you are investing in measure up in this regard? Poscente is most interesting in analyzing Dell which he calls a "Bottle Rocket," which pursues speed at all costs, but is lacking in ability to harness it, which ultimately puts it in danger. Though Dell didn't start out as a Bottle Rocket, its inability to evolve from the "Dell Way" over the past few years turned it into a prime example.
In the end, thinking of companies in terms of their ability to surmount and even capitalize on the speed of modern society is something that anyone -- tortoise or hare -- would be well served to do.
(Overall, Fuchs did a wham-bam thank you ma'am-type review that failed to put the story of the Turtles in its proper context, while doing a fair amount of psychological projection by associating the word turtle with a particular type of trading.
While I have several obvious disagreements with Fuchs, any credibility he has quickly evaporated as a result of this one sentence:
No turtle I know is a momentum player.
As a result of this obviously incorrect statement, I can only conclude that Fuchs didn't read or understand the book, which is too bad for TheStreet.com's readers, because if they take Fuchs' advice not to buy the book, then they will miss an opportunity to read and learn about one of the great trading stories of the late 20th century.)
Real Men of Genius
Those of us living in north central Indiana are subjected to absurd levels of Notre Dame football mania every fall, so much so that I can't bear to watch local TV news or read the local newspaper starting in about August.
So, it was with great delight when I found out about the following video. My friend has the audio on his cell phone as a ring tone. Yes, I know the vid has been on YouTube for awhile, but I couldn't resist posting it anyway.
Enjoy.
So, it was with great delight when I found out about the following video. My friend has the audio on his cell phone as a ring tone. Yes, I know the vid has been on YouTube for awhile, but I couldn't resist posting it anyway.
Enjoy.
Saturday, October 27, 2007
Cat Fight!
Looks like a cat fight is breaking out between trend following author Michael Covel and the Jim Cramer fanboys at TheStreet.com.
I've read Covel's book, The Complete Turtle Trader, and I've read the book review authored by Marek Fuchs, and it appears that Fuchs never read the book before writing his review. At best, he seems to have read the dust jacket.
Now, I once successfully faked a two-page book report in grade school by reading a book's dust jacket and then regurgitating it in my own words (got an A too!), but Fuchs needs to understand he is operating in the Web 2.0 world where faking it doesn't work quite so well, just ask Dan Rather and Pvt. Beauchamp.
If TheStreet.com had any credibility, they would put a huge disclaimer at the top of the page letting everyone know that Fuchs doesn't know what he's talking about because he didn't read the freakin' book.
Oh and they should refuse to pay him for the piece, too.
I've read Covel's book, The Complete Turtle Trader, and I've read the book review authored by Marek Fuchs, and it appears that Fuchs never read the book before writing his review. At best, he seems to have read the dust jacket.
Now, I once successfully faked a two-page book report in grade school by reading a book's dust jacket and then regurgitating it in my own words (got an A too!), but Fuchs needs to understand he is operating in the Web 2.0 world where faking it doesn't work quite so well, just ask Dan Rather and Pvt. Beauchamp.
If TheStreet.com had any credibility, they would put a huge disclaimer at the top of the page letting everyone know that Fuchs doesn't know what he's talking about because he didn't read the freakin' book.
Oh and they should refuse to pay him for the piece, too.
Breakout System Pick: JOYG
The 55-day breakout scan issued a buy for JOYG after Friday's close.
Not sure if I am going to take this trade or not since cash is beginning to run low and I have a trend following system pick that needs to be purchased at Monday's open.
Here's the chart if you're interested, though.
Not sure if I am going to take this trade or not since cash is beginning to run low and I have a trend following system pick that needs to be purchased at Monday's open.
Here's the chart if you're interested, though.
Friday, October 26, 2007
Day Trade: QLD
Bought 200 shares @ $116.45
Sold 200 shares @ 117.86
Per share profit of $1.41 ($282) or 1.21 percent.
I entered at the 10 a.m. bar as the Naz hit the R1 pivot point. After the morning's gap up, I expected the Naz to spend most of the day bouncing off the R1 until the moving averages caught up.
The market did what I expected it to do until 11:45 a.m. when it broke below R1, tagged the rising EMA 21 at Noon, then rebounded and began a slow grind north.
My profit target was R2, which represented the day's high, however, momentum was lacking especially in the Naz100 stocks, which kept banging their head against R1.
I exited the trade at the top of the 3:30 p.m. bar when even this stubborn trader could tell the market didn't have anything left to give.
Sold 200 shares @ 117.86
Per share profit of $1.41 ($282) or 1.21 percent.
I entered at the 10 a.m. bar as the Naz hit the R1 pivot point. After the morning's gap up, I expected the Naz to spend most of the day bouncing off the R1 until the moving averages caught up.
The market did what I expected it to do until 11:45 a.m. when it broke below R1, tagged the rising EMA 21 at Noon, then rebounded and began a slow grind north.
My profit target was R2, which represented the day's high, however, momentum was lacking especially in the Naz100 stocks, which kept banging their head against R1.
I exited the trade at the top of the 3:30 p.m. bar when even this stubborn trader could tell the market didn't have anything left to give.
Breakout System Pick: MNST
I bought 250 shares at $39.46.
Still debating what type of stoploss to use.
Still debating what type of stoploss to use.
Behold....
....all the breakout test results I could fit on one page.
I felt inspired after rereading a passage regarding system design, specifically, don't be too picky about the exact entry criteria you use as long as it works – just use it consistently.
So, I thought a more comprehensive comparison of breakout trading systems would be interesting. The lesson? They all work.
But how do you choose?
One of the key items I focus on in these comparisons is the maximum drawdown encountered during the test period.
A professional trader featured in one of the books in my trading library calls it the vomitility index. Or, how much money can you bear to lose before throwing up? Determine what that threshold is, then make sure your system doesn't come anywhere close to it. The systems featured below generate drawdowns from 11.8 percent to just over 32 percent.
To put those numbers in perspective, the Nasdaq Composite is roughly 50 percent below its March 2000 high.
Another item I pay attention to is the number of consecutive winning and losing trades.
Psychologically, I'm not sure I could consistently implement a trading system that generates a significant number of consecutive losing trades, significant for me being 12 or more. Even though I know the long-term results of the system are positive, a long string of losing trades can mess with your mind, which will make it more difficult to stick with the plan.
There are many other items to consider in choosing a system to trade, of course, but those are a couple that I turn to immediately.
As for the table below, the shaded column headers represent the time frames used by the Turtle Traders. And for reference sake, buying and holding the QQQ ETF over the same time period would have generated a return of approximately 70 percent. I would have included those numbers but I couldn't fit another column onto the page.
I felt inspired after rereading a passage regarding system design, specifically, don't be too picky about the exact entry criteria you use as long as it works – just use it consistently.
So, I thought a more comprehensive comparison of breakout trading systems would be interesting. The lesson? They all work.
But how do you choose?
One of the key items I focus on in these comparisons is the maximum drawdown encountered during the test period.
A professional trader featured in one of the books in my trading library calls it the vomitility index. Or, how much money can you bear to lose before throwing up? Determine what that threshold is, then make sure your system doesn't come anywhere close to it. The systems featured below generate drawdowns from 11.8 percent to just over 32 percent.
To put those numbers in perspective, the Nasdaq Composite is roughly 50 percent below its March 2000 high.
Another item I pay attention to is the number of consecutive winning and losing trades.
Psychologically, I'm not sure I could consistently implement a trading system that generates a significant number of consecutive losing trades, significant for me being 12 or more. Even though I know the long-term results of the system are positive, a long string of losing trades can mess with your mind, which will make it more difficult to stick with the plan.
There are many other items to consider in choosing a system to trade, of course, but those are a couple that I turn to immediately.
As for the table below, the shaded column headers represent the time frames used by the Turtle Traders. And for reference sake, buying and holding the QQQ ETF over the same time period would have generated a return of approximately 70 percent. I would have included those numbers but I couldn't fit another column onto the page.
Thursday, October 25, 2007
55-Day Breakout Play
I ran my 55-day breakout scan against the Naz100 and out popped a buy signal for MNST. I plan to enter a trade at Friday's open. A trailing stop of ATR(20) x 4 will be used to exit the trade.
To review backtest results for the 55-day breakout system, go here.
While I normally risk one percent of equity per trade, I'm thinking about bumping it to two percent for this trade, so I don't know yet if I'm buying 125 or 250 shares, although I'm leaning toward the latter because my portfolio is starting to look like an overly-diversified mutual fund. Yuck.
To review backtest results for the 55-day breakout system, go here.
While I normally risk one percent of equity per trade, I'm thinking about bumping it to two percent for this trade, so I don't know yet if I'm buying 125 or 250 shares, although I'm leaning toward the latter because my portfolio is starting to look like an overly-diversified mutual fund. Yuck.
TGT on Wallstrip
Target is today's Wallstrip featured stock and as you can see in the chart, the retailer has been experiencing a bit of turbulence over the last several months.
The last signal issued by my trend following system was a sell order on April 29 that netted about a 10 percent profit. It appears a move to the $68 area will be necessary before its gets a green light.
The last signal issued by my trend following system was a sell order on April 29 that netted about a 10 percent profit. It appears a move to the $68 area will be necessary before its gets a green light.
FDRY & UAUA Buys
These are trend following system picks.
I bought 100 shares of UAUA @ $48.21. I hate airlines.
I bought 350 shares of FDRY @ $18.39. I hate this chart, but I'm doing my system's bidding.
I bought 100 shares of UAUA @ $48.21. I hate airlines.
I bought 350 shares of FDRY @ $18.39. I hate this chart, but I'm doing my system's bidding.
Wednesday, October 24, 2007
I Hate Airline Stocks
Just wanted to get that out of my system before announcing my next trend following system pick tomorrow morning.
Seriously, I hate airlines – their stocks and their customer service – but my system is telling me to buy one, so I will, but I don't have to like it.
Details tomorrow.
Seriously, I hate airlines – their stocks and their customer service – but my system is telling me to buy one, so I will, but I don't have to like it.
Details tomorrow.
CTRP on Wallstrip
CTRP was featured on Wallstrip today and here is what my trend following system had to say about it. A buy signal was issued on April 12 at $34.63 or about 50 percent ago.
Day Trade: QLD
Bought 200 shares @ $113.50
Sold 200 shares @ $116.25
Per share profit of $2.75 (2.4 percent) or $550.
I bought the 2:15 p.m. bar as the Naz crossed above the S3 pivot point while making a triple moving average (EMA 4, 8 & 21) crossover on the 5-minute chart. I sold as the market tagged the S1 pivot.
Today's double bottom also coincided with the July high, which provided support and gave me added confidence in the trade.
Thanks to my two QLD day trades, a miserable day in the market was made a bit more tolerable.
Sold 200 shares @ $116.25
Per share profit of $2.75 (2.4 percent) or $550.
I bought the 2:15 p.m. bar as the Naz crossed above the S3 pivot point while making a triple moving average (EMA 4, 8 & 21) crossover on the 5-minute chart. I sold as the market tagged the S1 pivot.
Today's double bottom also coincided with the July high, which provided support and gave me added confidence in the trade.
Thanks to my two QLD day trades, a miserable day in the market was made a bit more tolerable.
Day Trade: QLD
Bought 200 shares @ $116.60
Sold 200 shares @ $117.48
Per share profit of .88 cents (.7 percent ) or $176.
I bought the opening gap down to the S1 Pivot Point at 2771 and planned to hold until the Naz got back to the day's Pivot Point at 2785, but it didn't make it there. Instead, the Naz took a turn for the worse on the 9:55 a.m. bar on the five minute chart so I bailed.
Sold 200 shares @ $117.48
Per share profit of .88 cents (.7 percent ) or $176.
I bought the opening gap down to the S1 Pivot Point at 2771 and planned to hold until the Naz got back to the day's Pivot Point at 2785, but it didn't make it there. Instead, the Naz took a turn for the worse on the 9:55 a.m. bar on the five minute chart so I bailed.
Tuesday, October 23, 2007
Day Trade: QLD
Bought 200 shares @ $116.16
Sold 200 shares @ $117.71
Per share profit of $1.55 (1.3 percent) or $310.
I dipped my toes back into the day trade world today and captured a decent move in the QLD. I entered the trade at the 11:30 a.m. bar as the Naz bounced off the EMA 21, which also coincided with the R1 pivot point on the QLD chart.
For the next couple hours, the Naz walked along its EMA 4 & 8 while bouncing its head against the R1 pivot point at 2773. Resistance gave way at 2 p.m. and I sold my position 15 minutes later as the RSI hit 99 and the move started to weaken at the 2785 level.
Turns out I may have sold too early because the market is trying to claw its way to the R2 pivot point at 2793, but I didn't believe it had the cojones to go that high so I bailed at the first sign of weakness. Oh well, live and learn.
Sold 200 shares @ $117.71
Per share profit of $1.55 (1.3 percent) or $310.
I dipped my toes back into the day trade world today and captured a decent move in the QLD. I entered the trade at the 11:30 a.m. bar as the Naz bounced off the EMA 21, which also coincided with the R1 pivot point on the QLD chart.
For the next couple hours, the Naz walked along its EMA 4 & 8 while bouncing its head against the R1 pivot point at 2773. Resistance gave way at 2 p.m. and I sold my position 15 minutes later as the RSI hit 99 and the move started to weaken at the 2785 level.
Turns out I may have sold too early because the market is trying to claw its way to the R2 pivot point at 2793, but I didn't believe it had the cojones to go that high so I bailed at the first sign of weakness. Oh well, live and learn.
LMIA on Wallstrip
LMI Aerospace is the featured stock on Wallstrip, and a buy according to my trend following system since May 16 at $19.13, or 42 percent ago.
Blog Additions
I made a couple changes to the blog tonight, the first being the addition of Contrary Canary to the blog roll. Contrary Canary focuses on IBD Top 200 and Bottom 200 stocks, and he uses options to trade those groups.
Secondly, I added links to several of the big name Trend Following traders who are featured in various books I've read on the subject. Included in the links is the website for Bill Eckhardt who, with his partner Richard Dennis, created the original Turtle Trading experiment in the 1980s.
Most of the pro traders have their performance numbers on their website, so if you want to see how your numbers stack up against some of the best in the business, here's your chance.
Secondly, I added links to several of the big name Trend Following traders who are featured in various books I've read on the subject. Included in the links is the website for Bill Eckhardt who, with his partner Richard Dennis, created the original Turtle Trading experiment in the 1980s.
Most of the pro traders have their performance numbers on their website, so if you want to see how your numbers stack up against some of the best in the business, here's your chance.
Monday, October 22, 2007
Thursday, October 18, 2007
Howard & Steve
It looks like our friend Howard is trying his best to become pen pals with Microsoft CEO Steve Balmer. Here is the email Howard wants to send to the Big B:
Since Howard sold himself short with Wallstrip, it is painfully obvious that he could use some business advice from a third tier blogger managing a portfolio that is equivalent to a rounding error on his monthly account statement.
So, here's my idea. Ready?
Sell Naked Putz to Microsoft for a cool $25 to $50 million.
Outrageous, you say?
Absurd, you scoff?
Drinking fermented maple syrup from the Great White North, you wonder?
No. No. And hell no, I've been drinking this tonight, but I can assure you it has not affected my judgment at all. Kind of.
Anyway, why do I believe Naked Putz is worth $25 to $50 million?
Repeat after me: Relative Quality.
WTF?
Here, let me show you.
First, here is the most recent edition of Naked Putz, Howard's weekend video feature.
Note the use of complete sentences, a storyline, the eye contact with the camera, and the well-groomed nose and ear hair, which are very important for people over 40.
Now, take a look at this video from Balmer. Pay special attention to Balmer's syntax and grammar, the absence of a storyline or point, and, of course, the completely inappropriate heavy breathing in front of a room full of total strangers. Seriously, we take that kind of behavior behind closed doors here in flyover country.
Here's the vid:
Clearly Naked Putz is a better show and more family appropriate, well, except for that Howard in the ladies' room thing. The production values are higher and old-man sweat is kept to a minimum, or at least kept off camera or covered up with lots of makeup.
In short, if Microsoft wants to update its image and make its presence felt in the Web 2.0 world, then it needs to buy Naked Putz for $25 to $50 million....and keep Balmer off the stage and away from cameras.
But, that's just my two cents.
Hi Steve…Howard here from Wallstrip (you could have bought us too) - Here’s who is cranking today other than you - Apple, Adobe, Logitech, Dolby and Synaptics. Not YOU! Happy to trade for you if you need to diversify…unless you quit you should. Howard (howard@lindzon.com)I posted on Howard's blog that instead of selling out to old media for $5 million, he and the Wallstrip team should have whored themselves out to old software for a cool $100 million, especially since Microsoft can't figure out what to do with its billions. Besides, Wallstrip easily would have been the company's best acquisition in at least a decade.
Since Howard sold himself short with Wallstrip, it is painfully obvious that he could use some business advice from a third tier blogger managing a portfolio that is equivalent to a rounding error on his monthly account statement.
So, here's my idea. Ready?
Sell Naked Putz to Microsoft for a cool $25 to $50 million.
Outrageous, you say?
Absurd, you scoff?
Drinking fermented maple syrup from the Great White North, you wonder?
No. No. And hell no, I've been drinking this tonight, but I can assure you it has not affected my judgment at all. Kind of.
Anyway, why do I believe Naked Putz is worth $25 to $50 million?
Repeat after me: Relative Quality.
WTF?
Here, let me show you.
First, here is the most recent edition of Naked Putz, Howard's weekend video feature.
Note the use of complete sentences, a storyline, the eye contact with the camera, and the well-groomed nose and ear hair, which are very important for people over 40.
Now, take a look at this video from Balmer. Pay special attention to Balmer's syntax and grammar, the absence of a storyline or point, and, of course, the completely inappropriate heavy breathing in front of a room full of total strangers. Seriously, we take that kind of behavior behind closed doors here in flyover country.
Here's the vid:
Clearly Naked Putz is a better show and more family appropriate, well, except for that Howard in the ladies' room thing. The production values are higher and old-man sweat is kept to a minimum, or at least kept off camera or covered up with lots of makeup.
In short, if Microsoft wants to update its image and make its presence felt in the Web 2.0 world, then it needs to buy Naked Putz for $25 to $50 million....and keep Balmer off the stage and away from cameras.
But, that's just my two cents.
Wednesday, October 17, 2007
Simple Is As Simple Does
I've been posting about system trading over at The Trading Goddess blog and after a couple posts some folks seem to doubt the ability of simple trading systems to generate absolute returns that blow the doors off buy and hold strategies.
So to demonstrate how easy it is to beat the market, specifically the NASDAQ as represented by the Qs, I ran backtests on the most basic trading system known to mankind, the simple moving average crossover system.
To allay any concerns that the results were produced by cherry picking different moving averages, I ran three tests on systems using three different combinations of moving averages.
Each test used a short, medium and long moving average. The buy signal was generated when the short crossed over the long, and the sell signal was generated when the short crossed under the medium.
All tests start with $50,000 in the account and 10 percent of capital dedicated to each position.
So without further ado, here are the results of three very simple moving average crossover systems that beat market returns without breaking a sweat.
So to demonstrate how easy it is to beat the market, specifically the NASDAQ as represented by the Qs, I ran backtests on the most basic trading system known to mankind, the simple moving average crossover system.
To allay any concerns that the results were produced by cherry picking different moving averages, I ran three tests on systems using three different combinations of moving averages.
Each test used a short, medium and long moving average. The buy signal was generated when the short crossed over the long, and the sell signal was generated when the short crossed under the medium.
All tests start with $50,000 in the account and 10 percent of capital dedicated to each position.
So without further ado, here are the results of three very simple moving average crossover systems that beat market returns without breaking a sweat.
CHLN, NINE & HOLX Buys
Here are charts for the three stocks I bought this morning.
First, the Chinese lottery tickets CHLN and NINE.
I have no idea what these companies do, nor do I care. I took a list of Chinese stock ticker symbols from The Fly's website, and then ran the stocks thru my relative strength trading system, which spit out buy orders for CHLN and NINE. So, here they are.
I also bought HOLX, a member of the NASDAQ 50. This was actually a buy for yesterday, but I had to dispose of some mutual funds to free up cash, so I entered a day late.
Now a word about position sizing. I currently manage about $120,000 in personal and family funds spread across three different accounts. In two of the accounts, I limit risk per trade to .5 percent of equity, primarily because it is other people's money, or a combination of mine and theirs. Therefore, I lean toward lower risk which results in smaller position sizes and more stocks in the portfolio.
However, when it comes to my IRA, I will be risking 1 percent per trade to maximize profits and to reduce the number of open positions. Too many positions, I believe, will only result in subpar performance.
So, if you take a gander at my stock tracker over on the right, don't be too freaked out by the number of open positions. I know there are a lot given the relative size of assets being managed, but there is a method to the madness.
First, the Chinese lottery tickets CHLN and NINE.
I have no idea what these companies do, nor do I care. I took a list of Chinese stock ticker symbols from The Fly's website, and then ran the stocks thru my relative strength trading system, which spit out buy orders for CHLN and NINE. So, here they are.
I also bought HOLX, a member of the NASDAQ 50. This was actually a buy for yesterday, but I had to dispose of some mutual funds to free up cash, so I entered a day late.
Bought 500 shares of CHLN @ $6.35
Bought 325 shares of NINE @ $5.48
Bought 125 shares of HOLX @ $68.33
Now a word about position sizing. I currently manage about $120,000 in personal and family funds spread across three different accounts. In two of the accounts, I limit risk per trade to .5 percent of equity, primarily because it is other people's money, or a combination of mine and theirs. Therefore, I lean toward lower risk which results in smaller position sizes and more stocks in the portfolio.
However, when it comes to my IRA, I will be risking 1 percent per trade to maximize profits and to reduce the number of open positions. Too many positions, I believe, will only result in subpar performance.
So, if you take a gander at my stock tracker over on the right, don't be too freaked out by the number of open positions. I know there are a lot given the relative size of assets being managed, but there is a method to the madness.
Putting Cash to Work
After transferring assets from an old 401k into my IRA brokerage account, I am putting that money to work this morning with the purchase of two Chinese lottery tickets and one NASDAQ 50 stock. Details after my orders are filled at the open.
For the record, risk per trade is 1 percent ($700) and the stoploss is set at ATR(10) x 3, which also is used for position sizing.
For the record, risk per trade is 1 percent ($700) and the stoploss is set at ATR(10) x 3, which also is used for position sizing.
Tuesday, October 16, 2007
55-Day Breakout System Results
I have another post at TG's place, this one showing the results of a 55-day breakout system very loosely based upon the S2 system used by the Turtle Traders.
The results are pretty impressive for something so simple, so please stop by and check it out.
The results are pretty impressive for something so simple, so please stop by and check it out.
Monday, October 15, 2007
BIIB
I love charts like this, especially when it happens to one of my stocks! YeeHaa!
I'm now up 62 percent on BIIB, which I bought at $51 and change in June.
Last week, I sold BEAS after it received an offer from Oracle (Disclaimer: Long ORCL), and I probably sold too soon. So, with BIIB I'll hold for a bit to see what offers the company receives, if any. The market is now valuing the stock at a 20 percent premium to Friday's close, but there is a chance the company could be sold for more, so I'll hold and wait.
I'm now up 62 percent on BIIB, which I bought at $51 and change in June.
Last week, I sold BEAS after it received an offer from Oracle (Disclaimer: Long ORCL), and I probably sold too soon. So, with BIIB I'll hold for a bit to see what offers the company receives, if any. The market is now valuing the stock at a 20 percent premium to Friday's close, but there is a chance the company could be sold for more, so I'll hold and wait.
Sunday, October 14, 2007
Oopsie
Reuters is reporting:
Geez, where did these bozos come from? They should all lose their McMansions and Gulfstream jets over this, but they won't.
Major banks including Citigroup Inc are looking at setting up a roughly $80 billion fund to buy ailing mortgage securities and other assets, in a bid to prevent the credit crunch from further hurting the global economy, sources familiar with the matter said.And to think that just a few months ago, all those smart people thought poor people unable to pay their bills were such good investments.
Geez, where did these bozos come from? They should all lose their McMansions and Gulfstream jets over this, but they won't.
Mission of Mercy
The Trading Goddess has embarked on a mission of mercy by inviting this third tier blogger to post on her heavily trafficked blog, so go there now to read my latest post.
Saturday, October 13, 2007
Weekend Reading
I'm spending the weekend reading the latest from Michael Covel, who I'm holding personally responsible for my growing obsession with system trading.
I spent some time this week slogging through the necessary paperwork to transfer 401k monies into my IRA brokerage account at Fidelity.
Once all of the transfers are completed, I'll have roughly $115,000 in two accounts available for trend following system trading. The end result will be larger position sizes and, hopefully, larger profits.
I'll write more about my trading plan once the funds are in place.
I spent some time this week slogging through the necessary paperwork to transfer 401k monies into my IRA brokerage account at Fidelity.
Once all of the transfers are completed, I'll have roughly $115,000 in two accounts available for trend following system trading. The end result will be larger position sizes and, hopefully, larger profits.
I'll write more about my trading plan once the funds are in place.
Chart Chomping
I was reviewing some charts over at ClearStation when I came across CPX. I have no idea what the company does, but I found the chart interesting.
One negative I see is the price dropped on Friday, which was a pretty strong day for most stocks. However, the price did bounce off the EMA(21), so that's good.
Bottom line, CPX looks like a good candidate for a swing trade.
One negative I see is the price dropped on Friday, which was a pretty strong day for most stocks. However, the price did bounce off the EMA(21), so that's good.
Bottom line, CPX looks like a good candidate for a swing trade.
Friday, October 12, 2007
Thanks Carl!
Today, one company I own offered to purchase another company I owned, so I sold BEAS after it jumped 33 percent on the news of Oracle's buyout offer. That sale looks a bit premature, but I'm not greedy.
After the market close, however, Biogen announced it was putting itself up for sale, possibly to Carl Icahn.
I've been long Biogen since June 19 and currently have a 35 percent profit on the position. I have no idea how much higher BIIB will go on this news, but I do know Monday morning is going to be very interesting and fun!
Who knew that Carl Icahn would turn out to be the gift that keeps on giving!?
Thanks again Carl!
After the market close, however, Biogen announced it was putting itself up for sale, possibly to Carl Icahn.
I've been long Biogen since June 19 and currently have a 35 percent profit on the position. I have no idea how much higher BIIB will go on this news, but I do know Monday morning is going to be very interesting and fun!
Who knew that Carl Icahn would turn out to be the gift that keeps on giving!?
Thanks again Carl!
BEAS Sell
I sold 100 shares at $18 for a gain of 29.5 percent. I opened the position on Oct. 1 at $13.89.
Thank you Carl Icahn and Oracle.
While this was a trend following system pick, I chose to close the trade before a sell signal was issued because the stock is probably about as high as its going to go for awhile.
Granted, someone else may try to buy the company now, but I'm going to redeploy my limited capital rather than try to squeeze every ounce of profit out of this one.
Disclaimer: Long Oracle.
Thank you Carl Icahn and Oracle.
While this was a trend following system pick, I chose to close the trade before a sell signal was issued because the stock is probably about as high as its going to go for awhile.
Granted, someone else may try to buy the company now, but I'm going to redeploy my limited capital rather than try to squeeze every ounce of profit out of this one.
Disclaimer: Long Oracle.
Thursday, October 11, 2007
MMM
Wallstrip is featuring another NYSE-listed issue with MMM, but I ran it through my trading system anyway. The result would have been a buy signal mid-May. Here are the details:
Buy Signal: May 17, 2007 @ $86.09
Gain/Loss: + 11.10 percent
Gain/Loss: + 11.10 percent
Wednesday, October 10, 2007
CHRW Sell
Sold 50 shares at $52.26 after CHRW tripped my stoploss order, which was set at $52.30, or $3 below my entry. Loss on the trade is $154.
IHP
IHP is Wallstrip's stock du jour so into the system it goes, even though as a NYSE-listed security it wouldn't normally be considered by my trend following system, which focuses exclusively on NASDAQ issues.
But, I'm not picking nits this morning, so here is the system results for IHOP.
Buy Signal: March 5, 2007 @ $54.75
Sell Signal: May 29, 2007 @ $57.85
Gain/Loss: + 5.26 percent
Buy Signal: August 1, 2007 @ $65.17
Gain/Loss: + 1.79 percent
As you can see, the stock lost momentum relative to the NASDAQ index in late May resulting in a sell signal, which would have missed July's spike up.
The mid-summer jump resulted in a new buy signal on August 1, but the range bound behavior since then has the stock heading toward another sell signal, which may happen late this week or early next if the stock doesn't man up and start heading higher.
But, I'm not picking nits this morning, so here is the system results for IHOP.
Buy Signal: March 5, 2007 @ $54.75
Sell Signal: May 29, 2007 @ $57.85
Gain/Loss: + 5.26 percent
Buy Signal: August 1, 2007 @ $65.17
Gain/Loss: + 1.79 percent
As you can see, the stock lost momentum relative to the NASDAQ index in late May resulting in a sell signal, which would have missed July's spike up.
The mid-summer jump resulted in a new buy signal on August 1, but the range bound behavior since then has the stock heading toward another sell signal, which may happen late this week or early next if the stock doesn't man up and start heading higher.
Tuesday, October 09, 2007
Trimble On Wallstrip
For the last few weeks, I have been running Wallstrip worthy stocks through my trend following trading system to see how 52-week high stocks fared against my system's buy and sell criteria.
As with any system, the results vary, but rather than keep the results to myself, I thought I would start posting the system's chart of each Wallstrip stock, starting with today's Wallstrip selection of Trimble.
Here is the most recent system signal and chart:
As with any system, the results vary, but rather than keep the results to myself, I thought I would start posting the system's chart of each Wallstrip stock, starting with today's Wallstrip selection of Trimble.
Here is the most recent system signal and chart:
Buy Signal: May 14, 2007 @ $30.32
Gain/Loss: + 38.25 percent
Gain/Loss: + 38.25 percent
ATVI Buy
Another trend following system pick. I was supposed to open this position yesterday, but I was too busy taking care of a sick six-year old to trade, so I'm opening the position a day late.
Monday, October 08, 2007
Quote of the Day
"I wanted to run in Chicago, not in hell." - Anonymous Runner, 2007 Chicago Marathon.
Those words were spoken to me Sunday afternoon as I leaned against a construction barricade at the 25-mile mark of the 30th Annual Chicago Marathon while waiting for my wife to enter the final stretch of the race.
The anonymous runner was jogging along the side of the street when he looked directly at me and uttered those words. He laughed, I laughed, then he poured a bottle of water over his head and kept going.
Sunday's marathon, which was my wife's second in two years, featured temperatures in the high 80s to low 90s with nary a breeze in the air. Needless to say, my wife didn't have much fun this year.
Once runners hit the half way point, they were no longer running in the shade provided by Chicago's downtown skyline. Instead, they were running on exposed asphalt with the sun heating everything around them while doing its best to fry their noggins at the same time.
Runners who were doing fine at mile 13 were devastated by the heat by mile 17, my wife among them. It was ugly.
In fact, so many runners were dropping like flies in a Raid factory that the race organizers called off the event and made everyone walk back to the finish line.
Unfortunately, one 35-year-old runner from Michigan, Chad Schieber, died during the event. Although the exact cause of death won't be known until the autopsy is conducted this week, no one will be surprised if it was heat related.
In addition, more than 80 runners were transported to hospitals, and several hundred were treated on site. According to my wife, several aid stations along the route were standing room only, so I'm sure the number of treated and hospitalized runners are higher than what's been reported so far.
The worst case I saw was a man being carried into the medical tent by three others while his wife walked beside him holding his hand. My wife saw one woman on a stretcher visibly shaking from the effects of heat stroke or heat exhaustion.
From a spectator perspective, it was difficult to tell what was louder, the shouts of encouragement from family and friends lining the race course, or the screaming ambulance sirens which didn't stop until an hour after the race was called off.
Overall, it was a tough day for a marathon and I think race officials made the right call by shutting it down.
On a personal note, I am very proud of my wife for her accomplishment, even though I think she and all other marathoners are freakin' nuts. Even so, she trained hard all year, she ran the best race she could, and she finished.
Those words were spoken to me Sunday afternoon as I leaned against a construction barricade at the 25-mile mark of the 30th Annual Chicago Marathon while waiting for my wife to enter the final stretch of the race.
The anonymous runner was jogging along the side of the street when he looked directly at me and uttered those words. He laughed, I laughed, then he poured a bottle of water over his head and kept going.
Sunday's marathon, which was my wife's second in two years, featured temperatures in the high 80s to low 90s with nary a breeze in the air. Needless to say, my wife didn't have much fun this year.
Once runners hit the half way point, they were no longer running in the shade provided by Chicago's downtown skyline. Instead, they were running on exposed asphalt with the sun heating everything around them while doing its best to fry their noggins at the same time.
Runners who were doing fine at mile 13 were devastated by the heat by mile 17, my wife among them. It was ugly.
In fact, so many runners were dropping like flies in a Raid factory that the race organizers called off the event and made everyone walk back to the finish line.
Unfortunately, one 35-year-old runner from Michigan, Chad Schieber, died during the event. Although the exact cause of death won't be known until the autopsy is conducted this week, no one will be surprised if it was heat related.
In addition, more than 80 runners were transported to hospitals, and several hundred were treated on site. According to my wife, several aid stations along the route were standing room only, so I'm sure the number of treated and hospitalized runners are higher than what's been reported so far.
The worst case I saw was a man being carried into the medical tent by three others while his wife walked beside him holding his hand. My wife saw one woman on a stretcher visibly shaking from the effects of heat stroke or heat exhaustion.
From a spectator perspective, it was difficult to tell what was louder, the shouts of encouragement from family and friends lining the race course, or the screaming ambulance sirens which didn't stop until an hour after the race was called off.
Overall, it was a tough day for a marathon and I think race officials made the right call by shutting it down.
On a personal note, I am very proud of my wife for her accomplishment, even though I think she and all other marathoners are freakin' nuts. Even so, she trained hard all year, she ran the best race she could, and she finished.
Friday, October 05, 2007
WFMI Buy
I bought 100 shares of WFMI at $51.27.
For the record, I don't like the company or its management, but the system said buy, so I did.
For the record, I don't like the company or its management, but the system said buy, so I did.
AMAT Sell
I sold AMAT at the open after a sell signal was issued yesterday by my trend following system. The stock was purchased in July at $19.85 and sold today at $20.80 for a 4.8 percent gain.
Thursday, October 04, 2007
WIND Buy
WIND is the latest buy candidate from my trend following system.
I bought 150 shares at $11.53 with a stop loss at $10.53 for a total risk of $150.
I bought 150 shares at $11.53 with a stop loss at $10.53 for a total risk of $150.
Wednesday, October 03, 2007
TLEO All Time High
TLEO is what trend following is all about!
My system issued a buy on this one in March at $15.83 and today it is hitting an all time high above $28, giving me a year to date gain of 76 percent.
Too bad I only own 100 shares, but back then I was keeping positions small until I was more comfortable trading my system.
My system issued a buy on this one in March at $15.83 and today it is hitting an all time high above $28, giving me a year to date gain of 76 percent.
Too bad I only own 100 shares, but back then I was keeping positions small until I was more comfortable trading my system.
ARMHY Sell
My trend following system issued a sell signal for ARMHY last week, but I held on for a couple extra days because it looked as though the price action was turning around, which it did.
However, the price has since stalled so I sold today.
I bought 275 shares at $7.11, and sold at $9.43, for a 31.3 percent gain.
However, the price has since stalled so I sold today.
I bought 275 shares at $7.11, and sold at $9.43, for a 31.3 percent gain.
CHRW Buy
My trend following system issued a buy order last night for CHRW, so I opened a position in the stock this morning with a buy price of $55.30 and a stop loss set at $52.50.
Monday, October 01, 2007
BEAS Buy
After the market close on Friday, my trend following system issued a buy for BEAS. Here is the chart:
This morning, I bought 100 shares at $13.89 with a stop loss at $12.57, or $1.32 below the entry price. The stop is set at four times the ATR(9) of .33 cents.
I placed the trade in my day trading account because I haven't been able to day trade due to Internet firewall issues at work, so I'll use the account for trend following trades until the problem is resolved.
Also, the position is small because the day trade account took quite a drubbing in August, so I'll be spending some quality time slowly rebuilding the account over the next several months.
This morning, I bought 100 shares at $13.89 with a stop loss at $12.57, or $1.32 below the entry price. The stop is set at four times the ATR(9) of .33 cents.
I placed the trade in my day trading account because I haven't been able to day trade due to Internet firewall issues at work, so I'll use the account for trend following trades until the problem is resolved.
Also, the position is small because the day trade account took quite a drubbing in August, so I'll be spending some quality time slowly rebuilding the account over the next several months.
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