Bought 100 shares @ $35.14
The MACD went positive a couple days ago and today's inventory report showed Natty supplies at a three-month low, so I think it will run for a couple bucks.
Friday, December 28, 2007
Tuesday, December 18, 2007
Fade to Black
The Dummy Spots blog joined the ranks of the discontinued but worth reading after Will published his final post last Thursday.
I always enjoyed reading and learning from his blog and will miss Will's insights on markets and life.
I always enjoyed reading and learning from his blog and will miss Will's insights on markets and life.
Palm Gets Clammy After Hours
Palm lost money last quarter and then promptly lost 10 percent of its value in after hours trading, bringing the company's market cap to a mere $550 million.
The company also suspended forward earnings guidance, so I'm guessing you can subtract another $100 million in market cap at Wednesday's open.
At this level, Apple could use slightly less than five percent of its $12 billion cash stash to eliminate a rival smart phone maker. Although Palm may do that all by itself.
The company also suspended forward earnings guidance, so I'm guessing you can subtract another $100 million in market cap at Wednesday's open.
At this level, Apple could use slightly less than five percent of its $12 billion cash stash to eliminate a rival smart phone maker. Although Palm may do that all by itself.
Sold the Rally
I used this morning's mini-rally to sell almost everything in my portfolio.
It is pretty obvious, even to this perpetually optimistic trader, that people hate stocks, so rather than fight the tape, I sold most of my holdings and am switching into day trader mode.
For the foreseeable future, I intend to concentrate almost exclusively on opening gap fades and extreme pivot plays, which tend to work out well for me when I follow my rules.
Stay tuned.
It is pretty obvious, even to this perpetually optimistic trader, that people hate stocks, so rather than fight the tape, I sold most of my holdings and am switching into day trader mode.
For the foreseeable future, I intend to concentrate almost exclusively on opening gap fades and extreme pivot plays, which tend to work out well for me when I follow my rules.
Stay tuned.
Friday, December 14, 2007
Day Trade: NQ
Bought 1 contract @ 2081
Sold 1 contract @ 2097
Gain of 16 points x $20 per point = $320 profit
Time in trade: 1 hour 8 minutes
I bought the opening gap at the S1 pivot point, placed a 5-point stoploss at 2076, and then waited for a rally. I exited the trade after the morning's gap filled.
Sold 1 contract @ 2097
Gain of 16 points x $20 per point = $320 profit
Time in trade: 1 hour 8 minutes
I bought the opening gap at the S1 pivot point, placed a 5-point stoploss at 2076, and then waited for a rally. I exited the trade after the morning's gap filled.
Tuesday, December 11, 2007
Will Fed Scrooge Kill Banks, Homebuilders?
Not long after today's decision by the Fed to cut interest rates a quarter percent, Jim Cramer posted a column at TheStreet.com stating that such scrooge-like behavior will have dire consequences for banks and homebuilders.
Here is the money quote:
Here is the money quote:
Yeah, we will work our way through this. But now, with only a quarter-point cut, we will no longer be able to forestall the bankruptcies. Banks are holding on for dear life, homebuilders the same. But their lifeline just got choked and far fewer will live because of this.Not sure if Cramer is right or not, but if he is, then I say good!
I believe the only way to cleanse the system of the excesses perpetrated in the housing and mortgage markets these past few years is for some household names in banking and homebuilding to go under.
Yes, it will be a painful process and it may drag the economy into recession, but bankruptcy is capitalism's version of absolution, so if we want to put the financial sins of the past behind us, then there is only one way to do it.
Once a couple bankruptcies occur, though, it will then be safe to call a bottom in the financial and homebuilder sectors.
Day Trade: NQ
Bought 1 contract @ 2142
Sold 1 contract @ 2146
Gain of 4 points x $20 per point = $80 profit
Time in trade: 3 hours 40 minutes
This was a pre-Fed scalp trade.
I entered the trade on the opening bar as the Naz pulled back to the day's pivot point (green line). From there it bounced between the pivot and the R1 pivot point (bottom red line).
I didn't expect much action before the Fed announcment at 2:15 p.m., so I scalped four points after the Naz crossed above and then pulled back to the R1 pivot.
Now, it is time to set up for a new trade to take advantage of the market's reaction to the Fed decision in 45 minutes.
Sold 1 contract @ 2146
Gain of 4 points x $20 per point = $80 profit
Time in trade: 3 hours 40 minutes
This was a pre-Fed scalp trade.
I entered the trade on the opening bar as the Naz pulled back to the day's pivot point (green line). From there it bounced between the pivot and the R1 pivot point (bottom red line).
I didn't expect much action before the Fed announcment at 2:15 p.m., so I scalped four points after the Naz crossed above and then pulled back to the R1 pivot.
Now, it is time to set up for a new trade to take advantage of the market's reaction to the Fed decision in 45 minutes.
Monday, December 10, 2007
Monday Recap
No trades today as I spent the day in bed feeling like crud.
However, I will be parked in front of the computer screen tomorrow waiting for the Fed announcement. I have a plan and am prepared to trade the plan, now all I need is for Mother Market to cooperate!
Good luck.
However, I will be parked in front of the computer screen tomorrow waiting for the Fed announcement. I have a plan and am prepared to trade the plan, now all I need is for Mother Market to cooperate!
Good luck.
Friday, December 07, 2007
Day Trade: NQ
Bought 1 contract @ 2122
Sold 1 contract @ 2134.25
Gain of 12.25 points x $20 per point = $245 profit
Time in trade: 4 hours 53 minutes
I entered the trade at the bottom of the 9:45 a.m. bar as the Naz pulled back to the day's pivot point (green line). I should have sold on the first rally at 11:30 a.m., but I was hoping for a move to the R1 pivot, which was not to be.
Since the trade was profitable, I moved my stop from 2117 to 2120 to limit my maximum loss to $40, then I waited for another bounce off the pivot point. I exited the trade near the top of the 2:30 p.m. bar when the Naz hit the same point of resistance it encountered this morning.
Sold 1 contract @ 2134.25
Gain of 12.25 points x $20 per point = $245 profit
Time in trade: 4 hours 53 minutes
I entered the trade at the bottom of the 9:45 a.m. bar as the Naz pulled back to the day's pivot point (green line). I should have sold on the first rally at 11:30 a.m., but I was hoping for a move to the R1 pivot, which was not to be.
Since the trade was profitable, I moved my stop from 2117 to 2120 to limit my maximum loss to $40, then I waited for another bounce off the pivot point. I exited the trade near the top of the 2:30 p.m. bar when the Naz hit the same point of resistance it encountered this morning.
Thursday, December 06, 2007
That's Gonna Hurt
Prosper Update
While the primary obsession of this blog is stock trading, I have been doing a little dabbling on the side with Prosper, the person-to-person lending site that allows subprime lender wannabes an opportunity to create their own homemade version of a credit crunch, albeit on a much smaller scale!
Actually, Prosper seems to be the place to go these days for personal, unsecured loans to consolidate high interest credit card debts or to snag that three-year loan to pay for a new kitchen. If you hate banks and/or credit card companies, and seriously who doesn't except bankers, then head over to Prosper for that next loan.
Loan applicants receive a letter rating indicating their credit risk, with categories ranging from AA for the lowest risk, to A, B, C, D, E, and finally, HR (high risk) for the least credit worthy amongst us. The lower your credit rating, the higher interest you will pay, but if you have a well-written loan description, then you can receive a lower rate as bidders compete to get your loan.
If you don't need a loan, but do have a couple hundred bucks sitting around without much to do, then why not setup a Prosper account and earn some decent interest!?
When it comes to Prosper lenders, I'm small fry with a mere $359 in seven outstanding loans earning an average interest rate of 13.25 percent. My loan portfolio consists of one A borrower, five B borrowers, and one C borrower. So far, all seven loans are current.
For the record, the largest lender on Prosper has $575,873 in outstanding loans, while the smallest lender has $50 outstanding, which is the minimum amount required for a lender.
If you do decide to participate in Prosper, I recommend using risk management rules similar to stock trading, such as limiting your risk in any one loan to a small fraction of your overall portfolio.
In fact, making loans on Prosper is very similar to trading. You know there will be losers (defaults in this case), but by limiting risk (small bets) and using the law of large numbers, you can ensure that the winners more than compensate for the losers while providing you with an acceptable profit.
Finally, my Prosper goal is to grow the account to such a size that the monthly payments received will allow for at least one new loan to be issued each month. Obviously, I'm not going to get rich on Prosper, but it is a fun, money-making diversion from stock trading.
Actually, Prosper seems to be the place to go these days for personal, unsecured loans to consolidate high interest credit card debts or to snag that three-year loan to pay for a new kitchen. If you hate banks and/or credit card companies, and seriously who doesn't except bankers, then head over to Prosper for that next loan.
Loan applicants receive a letter rating indicating their credit risk, with categories ranging from AA for the lowest risk, to A, B, C, D, E, and finally, HR (high risk) for the least credit worthy amongst us. The lower your credit rating, the higher interest you will pay, but if you have a well-written loan description, then you can receive a lower rate as bidders compete to get your loan.
If you don't need a loan, but do have a couple hundred bucks sitting around without much to do, then why not setup a Prosper account and earn some decent interest!?
When it comes to Prosper lenders, I'm small fry with a mere $359 in seven outstanding loans earning an average interest rate of 13.25 percent. My loan portfolio consists of one A borrower, five B borrowers, and one C borrower. So far, all seven loans are current.
For the record, the largest lender on Prosper has $575,873 in outstanding loans, while the smallest lender has $50 outstanding, which is the minimum amount required for a lender.
If you do decide to participate in Prosper, I recommend using risk management rules similar to stock trading, such as limiting your risk in any one loan to a small fraction of your overall portfolio.
In fact, making loans on Prosper is very similar to trading. You know there will be losers (defaults in this case), but by limiting risk (small bets) and using the law of large numbers, you can ensure that the winners more than compensate for the losers while providing you with an acceptable profit.
Finally, my Prosper goal is to grow the account to such a size that the monthly payments received will allow for at least one new loan to be issued each month. Obviously, I'm not going to get rich on Prosper, but it is a fun, money-making diversion from stock trading.
Trend Following System Sell: FDRY & ORCL
My trend following system issued sell orders for FDRY and ORCL after yesterday's close, so I sold them off this morning taking a small loss on FDRY and a small gain on ORCL.
Day Trades: NQ
Trade 1
Bought 1 contract @ 2109.75
Sold 1 contract @ 2104.75
Loss of 5 points x $20 per point = $100 loss
Time in trade: 13 minutes
Trade 2
Bought 1 contract @ 2104
Sold 1 contract @ 2120.25
Gain of 16.25 points x $20 per point = $325 profit
Time in trade: 4 hours 1 minute
Today's take = $210.40 net after commissions
I entered the first trade after the Naz hit the R1 pivot point as it pulled back from the morning's short rally. The pivot point held for a bit before the Naz broke through and headed lower hitting my stoploss.
I entered the second trade four minutes later as the Naz 100 hit the rising EMA 21 and started to bounce. As is my lot in life, my stoploss served as the turning point in the market! The trade was profitable immediately as the market ground its way back toward the R2 pivot, where it spent most of the day bouncing around.
Normally I would have sold at the R2 pivot, but the EMA 21 provided support a couple times during the day, so I held on for a possible afternoon rally, which was delivered courtesy of President Bush's mortgage bailout plan. However, just in case the afternoon rally did not materialize, I had moved my stoploss up from 2099 to 2104 to ensure that my day's loss would be limited to $100.
I exited the trade as the Naz approached the R3 pivot.
Bought 1 contract @ 2109.75
Sold 1 contract @ 2104.75
Loss of 5 points x $20 per point = $100 loss
Time in trade: 13 minutes
Trade 2
Bought 1 contract @ 2104
Sold 1 contract @ 2120.25
Gain of 16.25 points x $20 per point = $325 profit
Time in trade: 4 hours 1 minute
Today's take = $210.40 net after commissions
I entered the first trade after the Naz hit the R1 pivot point as it pulled back from the morning's short rally. The pivot point held for a bit before the Naz broke through and headed lower hitting my stoploss.
I entered the second trade four minutes later as the Naz 100 hit the rising EMA 21 and started to bounce. As is my lot in life, my stoploss served as the turning point in the market! The trade was profitable immediately as the market ground its way back toward the R2 pivot, where it spent most of the day bouncing around.
Normally I would have sold at the R2 pivot, but the EMA 21 provided support a couple times during the day, so I held on for a possible afternoon rally, which was delivered courtesy of President Bush's mortgage bailout plan. However, just in case the afternoon rally did not materialize, I had moved my stoploss up from 2099 to 2104 to ensure that my day's loss would be limited to $100.
I exited the trade as the Naz approached the R3 pivot.
Wednesday, December 05, 2007
Day Trades: NQ
Trade #2
Sold 1 contract @ 2102.25
Bought 1 contract @ 2098.50
Gain of 3.75 points x $20 per point = $75 profit
Time in trade: 4 minutes
Trade #3
Bought 1 contract @ 2093
Sold 1 contract @ 2097.25
Gain of 4.25 points x $20 per point = $85 profit
Time in trade: 23 minutes
Trade 2 was similar to my first trade posted below, except I was much slower entering the trade and much quicker getting out. I normally don't like to do multiple day trades if my first trade was profitable, but the setup was exactly the same as the first, so I made the trade and scalped a quick profit.
Trade 3 was entered during the 2:45 p.m. bar after the Naz dropped below the R3 pivot point and the RSI(2) hit 1. The market snapped back and began rallying off the R3 pivot. Unfortunately, someone walked into my office and, not knowing how long the conversation was going to be, I quickly exited the trade so I wouldn't be worrying about the trade while trying to chat with my visitor.
These two trades were not my best work in terms of entries and exits, but between the day's three trades, I did net $280 after commissions.
Sold 1 contract @ 2102.25
Bought 1 contract @ 2098.50
Gain of 3.75 points x $20 per point = $75 profit
Time in trade: 4 minutes
Trade #3
Bought 1 contract @ 2093
Sold 1 contract @ 2097.25
Gain of 4.25 points x $20 per point = $85 profit
Time in trade: 23 minutes
Trade 2 was similar to my first trade posted below, except I was much slower entering the trade and much quicker getting out. I normally don't like to do multiple day trades if my first trade was profitable, but the setup was exactly the same as the first, so I made the trade and scalped a quick profit.
Trade 3 was entered during the 2:45 p.m. bar after the Naz dropped below the R3 pivot point and the RSI(2) hit 1. The market snapped back and began rallying off the R3 pivot. Unfortunately, someone walked into my office and, not knowing how long the conversation was going to be, I quickly exited the trade so I wouldn't be worrying about the trade while trying to chat with my visitor.
These two trades were not my best work in terms of entries and exits, but between the day's three trades, I did net $280 after commissions.
Day Trade: NQ
Sold 1 contract @ 2105.50
Bought 1 contract @ 2098.75
Gain of 6.75 points x $20 per point = $135 profit
Time in trade: 25 minutes
I don't like to chase gaps, so I spent most of today watching my long positions increase by more than two percent, but as the Naz crossed above the R4 pivot point, I realized it was butting its head against the EMA 50 at 2670.
After moving more than 50 points, I didn't believe the Naz would have enough mojo left to break above the resistance of the EMA 50, so I shorted the market with a target at the R3 pivot point and/or the rising EMA 21 (green line), which were in the same vicinity.
I was hoping the trade would be worth 10 points, but settled for 6 and change after buyers stepped in just shy of my profit target.
Bought 1 contract @ 2098.75
Gain of 6.75 points x $20 per point = $135 profit
Time in trade: 25 minutes
I don't like to chase gaps, so I spent most of today watching my long positions increase by more than two percent, but as the Naz crossed above the R4 pivot point, I realized it was butting its head against the EMA 50 at 2670.
After moving more than 50 points, I didn't believe the Naz would have enough mojo left to break above the resistance of the EMA 50, so I shorted the market with a target at the R3 pivot point and/or the rising EMA 21 (green line), which were in the same vicinity.
I was hoping the trade would be worth 10 points, but settled for 6 and change after buyers stepped in just shy of my profit target.
Tuesday, December 04, 2007
$20 Too Late
Jefferson Krull over at Suck My Nasdaq rants against stock analysts who move stocks with their pronouncements only to be proven drastically wrong later.
I share his low regard of stock analysts, but hold my disdain for those who issue sell recommendations $20 too late! Take, for example, ETFC, which received a downgrade to sell on Monday from Bank of America.
The only question I have is: Where in the hell were they for the last six months and $20!?
Analysts are worthless and they should be paid accordingly.
I share his low regard of stock analysts, but hold my disdain for those who issue sell recommendations $20 too late! Take, for example, ETFC, which received a downgrade to sell on Monday from Bank of America.
The only question I have is: Where in the hell were they for the last six months and $20!?
Analysts are worthless and they should be paid accordingly.
Day Trade: NQ
Bought 1 contract @ 2056.50
Sold 1 contract @ 2067.75
Gain of 11.25 points x $20 per point = $225 profit
Time in trade: 1 hour 29 minutes
I entered on the gap down and held until the Naz started showing signs of weakness at the 10:45 a.m. bar. My target was the day's pivot point at 2647, but not sure there is enough strength in the market today to get there.
Sold 1 contract @ 2067.75
Gain of 11.25 points x $20 per point = $225 profit
Time in trade: 1 hour 29 minutes
I entered on the gap down and held until the Naz started showing signs of weakness at the 10:45 a.m. bar. My target was the day's pivot point at 2647, but not sure there is enough strength in the market today to get there.
Monday, December 03, 2007
Day Trade: NQ
Trade 1
Sold 1 contract @ 2092.50
Bought 1 contract @ 2091.25
Net gain of 1.25 points x $20 per point = $25 profit
Time in trade: 3 minutes
Trade 2
Sold 1 contract @ 2094.75
Bought 1 contract @ 2082.75
Net Gain of 12 points x $20 per point = $240 profit
Time in trade: 1 hour 40 minutes
My first trade was exited by mistake when I clicked the submit button instead of the preview button, but it worked out fine because 30 minutes later it would have been stopped out for a loss as the market rallied briefly.
The second trade went according to plan.
The market rallied to the day's pivot, which also happened to be just below the EMA 50. Given the weak manufacturing report, I didn't believe the market would have enough momentum to break above those two resistance points, so I sold one NQ contract at 11:55 a.m. betting the market would rollover from there.
I was almost stopped out of this one, but the market stopped .75 points shy of triggering my stoploss, which proved to be the turning point.
The trade was covered once the market dropped to the S1-Pivot midpoint (white line), which provided support earlier this morning.
Sold 1 contract @ 2092.50
Bought 1 contract @ 2091.25
Net gain of 1.25 points x $20 per point = $25 profit
Time in trade: 3 minutes
Trade 2
Sold 1 contract @ 2094.75
Bought 1 contract @ 2082.75
Net Gain of 12 points x $20 per point = $240 profit
Time in trade: 1 hour 40 minutes
My first trade was exited by mistake when I clicked the submit button instead of the preview button, but it worked out fine because 30 minutes later it would have been stopped out for a loss as the market rallied briefly.
The second trade went according to plan.
The market rallied to the day's pivot, which also happened to be just below the EMA 50. Given the weak manufacturing report, I didn't believe the market would have enough momentum to break above those two resistance points, so I sold one NQ contract at 11:55 a.m. betting the market would rollover from there.
I was almost stopped out of this one, but the market stopped .75 points shy of triggering my stoploss, which proved to be the turning point.
The trade was covered once the market dropped to the S1-Pivot midpoint (white line), which provided support earlier this morning.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
