Saturday, January 24, 2009

How To Make Employees Love You

Starbucks bought a $45 million corporate jet last month at about the same time it told employees that it is reconsidering how much it will match in their 401(k) plans this year.
Apparently the jet was ordered three years ago but the company just took delivery. A big oops on the timing.

Friday, January 23, 2009

Rare Species Spotted: An Inside Week

Don't see many of these around, an inside week on the Nasdaq 100 where all trading on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday took place within Tuesday's range. 

The S&P had one, too, while the Nasdaq Composite and Dow Industrials came close. 

Yeah, I know, it was a short week, but still interesting from a WTH is going on perspective.

So, is this a bear flag or just meaningless noise? I think we'll find out soon as the tension between the bulls and bears today was almost palpable. One side is approaching capitulation, but I have no idea what side it will be.

Monday, January 19, 2009

Global Trade Declining Rapidly

Here is an interesting article on the dramatic drop in global trade.

And here is a snippet:
Freight rates for containers shipped from Asia to Europe have fallen to zero for the first time since records began, underscoring the dramatic collapse in trade since the world economy buckled in October.

Wednesday, January 14, 2009

20-Day Highs

Short'em. Just saying.

Tuesday, January 06, 2009

Wealth-Lab Developer 5.1 Experiment

A few days ago, I downloaded a copy of Wealth-Lab Developer 5.1, portfolio-level backtesting software, with the hope of finding a more powerful and comprehensive tool for system development.

To learn how the software works, I've been trying to recreate some of my StockFetcher filters using Wealth-Lab's click and drag system coder.

Tonight's experiment involved recreating the RSI(2) strategy and applying it to the Nasdaq 100 stocks. However, instead of limiting the system to long only, I combined the RSI(2) long strategy with an RSI(2) short strategy, then ran a two-year backtest.

The rules of the system are simple:
Go long if price is above the MA(50) and RSI(2) is less than 5
Exit when RSI(2) is above 70 or an 8 percent stop loss is hit

Go short if price is below the MA(50) and RSI(2) is greater than 95
Cover when RSI(2) is less than 30 or an 8 percent stop loss is hit

Starting equity is $100,000 and position sizing is $5,000 per trade
Here are the results:


New Field Sobriety Test

Word on the street is that the Indiana State Police are working on a new field sobriety test. It apparently has a 100 percent success rate in identifying those who are driving under the influence of drugs or alcohol.

Here is a spy video of the technique during its R&D phase:


Sunday, January 04, 2009

Best Video Ever

I think I've found a new hobby.

Check out this video.

Saturday, January 03, 2009

Four Degrees of Freedom

Refining a new mechanical trading system and ran a series of backtests with and without a profit stop. As the post title states, this system uses four degrees of freedom. 

Here are the results for each year since 2002.


One aspect of the system I really like is it produces half as many signals in bear market years as it does in bull market years, while handily beating the benchmark's performance every year.